30 Aug 2018

The 2018/19 season will receive largely normal to below normal rainfall.

During October to December, the northern parts of Botswana (Ghanzi, Ngamiland and Chobe District) are expected to receive below normal to normal rainfall while the remaining parts of Kgalagadi, Southern, Southeast, Kgatleng, Kweneng, CKGR, Northeast and the Central Districts are expected to receive normal rainfall with a likelihood of below-normal rainfall.

This was revealed by principal meteorologist Mr John Stegling during the 2018 seasonal rainfall outlook, as he noted that the temperatures for this period were expected to be normal to above normal and as for the period of January to March 2019, Kgalagadi District was expected to receive below normal to normal rainfall.

He said the scope of the seasonal outlook would be used for the benefit of policy-making-decisions in the climate-sensitive sectors for socio-economic purposes as well as to manage risks arising from climate variability and climate change.

This, he said, came as a result of constant complaints from farmers who always said that the Department of Meteorological Services failed to advise them accordingly on the state of rainfall outlook in order for them to take a precise decision on which crops to plough for that particular rainfall season.

“October to March constitutes the rainfall season over Botswana,” he said noting that the seasonal rainfall had been divided into three monthly forecast being October, November, December (OND), and January, February to March (JFB) with a possibility of about 60 per cent chance of El Niño in September.

He said for Botswana climate, warming and cooling of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, south-western and north-western sectors of the Indian Ocean and additional influence from the Atlantic Ocean determined how rainfall over Botswana would evolve during the season.

Mr Stegling emphasised that although this was a major influencing factor, it was not the only one as other factors may include the tropical cyclones and others.

He noted that in order to generate seasonal rainfall forecast, the Department of Meteorological Services, through its participation in the Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF), developed a statistical model for Botswana which was used to generate the seasonal rainfall and temperature outlook for 2018/19.

“The Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are used as a predictor while rainfall and temperature as the predictands,” he said adding that the outlook was relevant only for seasonal time scale and relatively large areas.

Mr Stegling advised all concerned and all stakeholders to periodically contact the department for interpretation of the forecast, finer details and additional guidance as required.

Welcoming the gathering, acting director Mr Radithupa Radithupa said they had an international obligation and national obligation to accord the society the forecast, adding that they aligned their vision to that of the country, region and the Sustainable Development Goal. ENDS