15 Sep 2015

The Department of Meteorological Services (DMS) has announced a deficit forecast for the year 2015 and 2016 rainfall season.

Director of DMS Mr Thabang Botshona told the media during a presentation of the seasonal rainfall outlook recently that a deficit in rainfall is expected over the coming season, mainly due to the potentially persistent strong El Nino conditions.

Mr Botshona said the DMS has reviewed the state of the global climate systems and analysed the rainfall prospects for the period of October to March 2016. He said the conclusions reached are based on the state of the Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic oceans.

“The SSTs anomalies in east and central Pacific oceans are depicting strong El Nino conditions, which is likely to peak during the southern hemisphere in summer,” he said.

Mr Botshona explained that it is expected that the well above average SSTs in the Indian Ocean and that the expected strong El Nino conditions will have a major influence on weather and climate patterns.

Presenting the national seasonal rainfall outlook for Botswana, DMS senior meteorologist Ms Esther Jansen reported that the country will experience rains from normal to below normal.

She predicted that the South East regions will experience a dry season. The forecast predicts the worst dry season in the past 34 years over the eastern regions while the rest of the country will be moderately dry. Ms Jansen said strong El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions will be a major feature influencing rainfall over Botswana from October 2015 to March 2016.

“For Botswana climate, warming and cooling for the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, South-Western and North-Western sectors of the Indian Ocean determines rainfall in Botswana,” she said.

“During the months of December, January, and February(DJF) 2015/16, the eastern areas of Kgatleng, Kweneng, Southern, Northeast central and CKGR are expected to remain extremely dry” she said.

Meanwhile, chief agronomist at the Ministry of Agriculture, Mr Thomas Mogome, has told BOPA in an interview that they are working on a strategy to advise farmers on how to get the most out of the forecast poor rains. He said that it is not upon the ministry to stop farmers from attempting to plough. He said that they can only advise farmers on how to prepare to exploit the rain. Ends