27 Apr 2016

 Senior corporate communication officer at Statistics Botswana, Mr Temba Sibanda says population projection in the field of demography is an estimate of a future population.

In contrast with intercensal estimates and censuses, which usually involve some sort of field data gathering, projections usually involve mathematical models based only on pre-existing data may be made by a governmental organization, or by those unaffiliated with a government.

In an interview with BOPA following an advert on population projections, Mr Sibanda explained that population projections give the image or  a reflection of what the future population would be, based on three components of population changes that are fertility, mortality and migration.

He said it gives a picture of what the future population may look like, based on knowledge of the past and taking, for the future, hypotheses based on fertility, mortality and migrations.

The demographic projections, he said are made by what would be on the basis of the results of the population census.    He said comprehension and factual data from the past and present play a crucial role in developing assumptions of the components of population change and these projections are prepared specifically to provide data for planning during inter-censal period

Mr Sibanda further said there are a number of approaches to population projections, namely the mathematical and the cohort component method and said for the 2011-2026 Botswana Population projections, the cohort component was used since it takes into consideration the effect of birth, deaths and migration on population change.

Regarding the Botswana downwards population growth, which fell from the 4.7 per cent in 1971 to 1.9 per cent in 2011, Mr Sibanda said key factor in population change was natural increase, meaning that the number of births minus the number of deaths, net migration, and the interplay between these elements.

He however, said these factors are in turn driven by fertility rates, the age structure of the population, mortality rates, life expectancy and rates of in and out migration.

“However, for most countries in Sub Saharan Africa, fertility decline has been driven by declining level of mortality, low mortality levels are a result of advancement in medicinal technology, improvement in personal hygiene, and eradication of famines,” said Mr Sibanda.

He said in situations of low mortality, human beings tend to focus on the quality of children rather than quantity, furthermore, research has indicated that low levels of fertility in Botswana are related to empowerment of girl child and delayed marriages.

The advert showed that some major towns such as Lobatse and Selibe Phikwe were experiencing serious decline of more than 5000 and said the two towns have been greatly affected by lack of industrial growth, stating that apart from the Botswana Meat Commission in Lobatse and Bamangwato Concession limited (BCL), he said the two towns have not had significant industries which could have attracted people to them that is between the census years and said the situation might be a bit different between 2011 and 2021 and Gaborone and Francistown showed a serious increase.

On whether he would say Botswana has an aging population, Mr Sibanda said the 2011 Population and Housing Census revealed that Botswana population is very young, with 32.7 per cent of the population aged less than 15 years, however, having experienced the demographic dividend, there is a likelihoods aging of the population may be experienced in future, provided that the current low fertility and mortality rates continue, with an increase on the life expectancy.

He said this means there will be less population feeding on the younger ages hence the less decrease on the aging population, this will result slow decrease of the older ages hence aging population and this remains a challenge for the government since there will be the need for planning in terms of policies and programmes such as Old Age Pension, Medical expenses for the aging population.

Mr Sibanda said the economically active population was 15 years to 64 year which is referred to as labour force comprising the employed and unemployed. He said most of the youth are found in the retail and wholesale, transportation and distribution, arts and culture among others.

He said the life expectancy is estimated at 66 years, and the factors affecting mortality levels are usually associated with differing levels of social and economic development in a country, differentials in individual living standards and their socio- economic characteristics. ENDS